Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 206.411091 248.254064 299.192952 366.691359 455.197628 569.350548 7.312010e+02
2025-08-17 152.076932 198.732364 262.281782 358.055128 504.172478 728.715562 1.122234e+03
2025-08-24 121.386976 167.743602 235.972772 348.841173 542.209385 885.162480 1.611244e+03
2025-08-31 101.290071 145.874733 215.435519 339.181813 572.185529 1039.691625 2.219630e+03
2025-09-07 93.823396 140.923258 218.975313 369.035419 682.892218 1410.877432 3.710955e+03
2025-09-14 83.964412 130.021369 209.808908 372.500631 742.132044 1709.298009 5.457253e+03
2025-09-21 77.262595 123.115310 205.966728 384.856642 826.581110 2139.600357 8.586711e+03
2025-09-28 70.081470 114.165634 196.482741 382.517276 874.437424 2506.755940 1.254019e+04
2025-10-05 67.731692 113.522504 202.766616 417.098411 1039.876894 3465.035642 2.501436e+04
2025-10-12 64.930510 111.555283 205.914575 445.304270 1205.059800 4676.117719 5.220043e+04
2025-10-19 61.802224 108.472301 206.076937 466.094253 1361.245216 6146.010613 1.154417e+05
2025-10-26 58.321036 104.200026 202.836953 476.835822 1490.442957 7769.734868 2.677867e+05
2025-11-02 54.468529 98.891839 196.828043 479.617603 1599.815490 9654.345910 7.321910e+05
2025-11-09 50.308721 92.471487 187.244872 469.330504 1649.880056 11283.028503 2.093576e+06
2025-11-16 46.525064 86.439121 177.694933 456.711525 1683.982269 12978.315042 7.977551e+06
2025-11-23 43.139309 80.910538 168.577020 443.151350 1707.010427 14756.625958 5.697831e+07
2025-11-30 42.639976 81.677932 175.399247 485.520883 2074.077213 24070.727604 NaN
2025-12-07 40.556478 78.632884 171.851702 490.466339 2232.566833 31615.027071 NaN
2025-12-14 39.131131 76.945022 171.666286 508.121315 2500.650890 46252.329380 NaN
2025-12-21 37.084768 73.594693 166.436240 504.774518 2620.907914 59212.571101 NaN
2025-12-28 36.882788 74.602737 173.584255 554.474351 3240.755385 120885.570436 NaN
2026-01-04 36.316596 74.661445 178.041849 595.353805 3882.597496 253416.509415 NaN
2026-01-11 35.447619 73.873561 179.864606 625.674828 4503.263296 543950.280091 NaN